There’s a good deal of money to be obtained this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. DK also has lots of Qualifier contests on this week, where the last event will pay $50k to 1st for those who did qualify to perform inside. I’ll be pursuing those as well since we’ve never had a $50k 1st place prize and I need it. I do think we have a fun card this Saturday and I am all set to go into this 3-week break with a winning night in UFC 227. Listed below are a couple plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of this week.
Money Game play of this week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the safest play in most DFS MMA and he’s the maximum ceiling as well. DJ is your P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he has beat Cejudo once before. This is the first person I am plugging into my money LU this week and I suggest you do exactly the same. DJ is practically sure to score at 100-points in a triumph, and he has a -550 gambling line saying he should find the win here. Play it safe and use DJ in cash. It’s possible to stack this fight as well, however I think DJ is a must.
GPP drama of this week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a good fight to goal this week since it probably won’t go to a choice. Holland just fought on the Contender Series a couple weeks back and did not receive a contract. But now he’s on the PPV against one of the scariest strikers from the branch. The ITD line for Santos is now -210 and the under 1.5 rounds betting line is -160. That tells me Vegas believes this fight ends early and Santos is the guy that should pick up the finish. At $9.2k, he easily pays that price tag off at a 1st round win and I presume he has a solid shot at doing exactly that. I really don’t care for him in cash game formats however because both guys have quite lower floors, so this is a GPP only play for me personally.
Underdog drama of this week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I believe everyone is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is exactly why he is so economical on DraftKings this weekend. Together with the wrestling style Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside in a decision win. Of course, we’re concerned about him getting caught in a guillotine if he shoots takedowns, but if he can avoid that I think he could win this fight and 10x his salary with a triumph. I don’t think Johns will want to strike with Munhoz for 15-minutes so I do believe he is going to be shooting for takedowns. Those takedowns can get him filed, or else they could get him a triumph over the scorecards. However, that makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he’s a solid underdog to pick in GPPs this week.
Fade of this week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even at a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a finish to cover that price tag off with her style. She has the worst fashion potential for scoring DraftKings stage and even if she’s a win here she could end up scoring less than several losers on the card. Taylor will be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so if you would like to invest your cash on a 115 pound lady with a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be quite contrarian taking that path. But I have no interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I was making 150 lineups, I would still complete vanish Taylor here.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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