This weekend we’ve got an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and enjoy the remainder of the day when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters producing their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we ought to have a big edge this week if we place in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on those titles they’ve never heard and will just be throwing lineups trying to get lucky and hit a huge score. I’ll be pursuing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card this Sunday and I think we’ll see a good deal of people making mistakes in cash games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I like to pile it into my money games and lock those points. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we could observe numerous knockdowns too which can help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points combined with these two men. Let’s let everybody else make the mistakes and we could lock at a 100+ points and a triumph, then we only need to find another 3 wins we are convinced in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up for Bermudez a triumph. He’s got quite a slick submission game and when this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up advance points quickly and find a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he’s winning on the feet, he shoots in for takedowns every struggle. I think if Manny can not get the takedown himself, then Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we could observe a 1st round entry here which should easily get the 10x+ we are looking for in his $9.2k price label.
Underdog drama of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this battle he will easily repay this price tag. He has 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped out more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse rivalry. I wouldn’t be shocked if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the past few years but I think he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I do need exposure to both men in GPPs, however I believe you need some vulnerability to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my selections being correct and I will hit the ideal combo. It’s tough to pick one favorite fade this week however I shall select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he’ll use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. Thus, you would think that sounds great on DraftKings because wrestling racks up points. But, he does not chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or two in his UFC wins. He does not have much completing ability and that I don’t see him getting a entry. However, I think we will see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory as we have seen from him in the past. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
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