This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Minnesota. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. In addition they have a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. There are just 14 more chairs remaining so there will not be far more time to qualify if you’re trying to. I will attempt to receive my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k prize, and then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I enjoy Gordon to get the win this weekend and he’ll be a money match play of mine personally. There are better fights to target when we’re looking for 1st round knockouts but I will be focusing more on people in GPPs. I like the ground and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is exactly why he’s the cash play of the week. I don’t think Moret has the ability to actually test the chin of Gordon’s that has appeared to be his biggest weakness recently. With the speed Gordon sets I presume he’s 100+ upside into a decision win and I really don’t see him becoming finished here so he ought to have a solid floor. I believe his floor in a win is probably 80+ also that is completely fine for money games. This is a catchy weak, but this is my personal favorite cash game place of this week.
GPP play of this week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I needed to proceed with Ngannou here. When he wins it is probably that a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 on the betting line. If he receives that 1st round KO, he then scores over 100 DK points and at his 8.8k salary which will place him on the 25k lineup. He’ll be very chalky this week though so make sure you load him up if you’re multi-entering if you want to find leverage over the area. I do think JDS is a live underdog here too, so I will be targeting both sides of the struggle, but I really do observe 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here and that can beat a good deal of the fighters priced over him.
Underdog drama of the week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week because I am not choosing any actual underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only guy who would be considered an underdog I think will win and I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we are getting him $200 less than Greene but I wouldn’t be surprised if Albini was the favored on the betting line going into the conflicts. With these guys being Heavyweights, it does not take much to get a knockout and should Albini can do that at $8k he can give me a rush at the perfect lineup.
Fade of this week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her preceding fight as well and she burnt me scoring a 1st round submission. I am going back to the fade here though and trusting the same does not happen. On a card where I’m choosing basically each favorite, I’d rather select the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire in her $8.5k price tag. I am not sure that going into the ground is in her best interest in this fight and if she stays standing I don’t see her paying off worth in a win. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I would be taking some shots on Whitmire, but that I will likely only make ~20 and she won’t make my player pool with this many lineups.
Thanks for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you Want my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 83-52 to get +251.89un (+$25,421) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
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